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The dollar is firmer ahead of European morning trade as the market is seeing a slight risk-off tilt with US futures lower alongside Treasury yields and oil as well.
The worsening virus situation in major parts of the world is dominating the headlines since the weekend, with hopes for a stimulus deal to drag on until after the election adding to the pessimistic sentiment as we get the new week underway.
The firmer dollar is seeing EUR/USD test its 100-hour moving average @ 1.1831 with GBP/USD seeing a more neutral near-term bias now in a drop below its own 100-hour moving average earlier in the day to around 1.3020 levels currently.
USD/JPY is also keeping slightly higher so far today, climbing towards 104.90 and just shy of a test of its own 100-hour moving average @ 104.95.
Elsewhere, AUD/USD saw its upside move at the end of last week stall at the 38.2 retracement level of the recent swing move down from mid-October @ 0.7158 and is trading closer to 0.7115 now – just above its 200-hour moving average @ 0.7102.
AUD/JPY is still consolidating lower just above the recent lows near 74.20 but struggling to breach its 200-hour moving average – now @ 74.68 – so far today.
In the commodities space, oil is down by ~2% and threatening to fall below $39 and its 12 October low @ $39.03. The 200-day moving average is seen closer to $37.54 and that may be a level of interest sellers will be aiming for amid ongoing virus concerns.
It is the week before the US election and while there is a slight risk-off tilt to start the day now due to the virus narrative, it may be tough to identify a consistent theme in trading this week considering the anticipation ahead of next week’s main event.
For now, virus jitters are starting to come up again a little with a reasonable argument that it could intensify should the market start focusing on it again more intently.
But there’s also the case that easy money is still a reckoning force behind the scenes and that is a counter-argument to any major risk-off narrative in the big picture.
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