Canada March employment +72.5K vs +80K expected

• Unemployment rate 5.3% vs 5.3% expected (prior 5.5%)
• Full time +92.7K vs 121.5K prior
• Part time -20.3K vs 215.1K prior
• Participation rate 65.4% vs 65.4 exp (prior 65.4%)
• Avg hourly wages 3.7% y/y vs 3.3% prior
• Total hours worked +1.3% m/m
• Employment among those aged 55 or over rose 39K
• Services +42K
• Goods +31K
• Employment to population 62.4%

The fall to 5.3% unemployment marks the lowest Canadian reading since records began in 1976. The adjusted unemployment rate—which includes people who wanted a job, but did not look for one—was below its pre-pandemic level for the first time at 7.2%.

At some point in the very-near future there won’t be much jobs growth because labour supply will be largely tapped out. We’re seeing the over-55 cohort pulled back into the work force and Canada has heavy immigration so there will still be growth but +25K will soon be a ‘good’ number.

 CAD  is largely unchanged after the report but even with a 50 bps hike next week, the BOC could signal more half-point hikes because of the strong jobs backdrop.