Technical Analysis

CFTC commitments of traders data for the week ending October 5, 2020 EUR long 174K vs 188K long last week. Longs trimmed by 14K GBP short 11K vs 13k long last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K JPY long 21K vs 25K long last week. Longs trimmed by 4K CHF long 13K vs 13K long last week.

Indices close near the highs for the day The US stock markets are closed for the day.  All 3 major indices close higher on the day led by the NASDAQ index. Highlights for the day include Dow’s close positive for 2020 Major indices close at the highest level since September 2 Dow enjoys its best week in

Major currencies gain more vs. the USD The major currencies are gaining more ground vs. the US dollar. The dollar index has moved to the lowest level since September 21 (see chart below) and is dipping below a lower trendline at 93.10. The low price just reached 93.077. Looking at the changes of the major

Gold can’t be pinned down There are two lines of thinking on the easy-money trade (low rates & high government spending): Bet on it now because Democrats are way ahead in the polls Wait and see what the election brings I lean to option #2 but maybe I’m being overly cautious. In the past two

The low stalled near its 100 day moving average. The NZDUSD moved lower in Asian trading on a Reuters headline saying ’actively working’ on negative interest rate and funding-for-lending programme.  That sent the pair tumbling lower, but traders came in near its 100 day moving average at 0.6550. The low for the day reached 0.6546 before snapping back to the upside. The run

A look at bond rates The battle for the election, the battle for economic stimulus and the battle for the economy are captured best right now by the US long bond. 30-year yields are at a pivotal spot, fighting to break the 200-day moving average for the first time since 2018 and fighting to break

The 100 hour MA has stalled the rally twice today The GBPUSD has been up to the 100 hour MA twice today and each time, sellers have leaned. The latest was during the last  hourly bar.  Like the early European test, sellers leaned.   The pair has seen up and down price action with a myriad

Stimulus is off the table for now The case for buying gold is that easy money policies at central banks and governments are going to last for years. Trump’s decision to call off discussions on a $1.5-$2.2 trillion package put that in doubt, at least for now. Gold responded by falling to $1875 from $1910.

Trading range is only 41 pips today The USDCAD fell to the lowest level since September 21 in the Asian session, and in the process took out a swing hi from September 17 at 1.32462.  The low reached 1.32413. However the break could not be sustained and the price rebounded higher.  The subsequent next low in the early North American session,

NASDAQ index rises 2.25% The major US stock indices surged higher as investors cheered the potential for a stimulus package. Mnuchin and Pelosi are said to be exchanging new ideas.  The stocks were also buoyed by a better-than-expected ISM services index for September which rose to 57.8 from 56.9 last month. The expectations were for a

German Dax up 1.2%, France’s CAC up 1.0% The major European indices are starting the week with gains across the board. Each of the major indices are higher. The provisional closes are showing: German DAX, +1.2% France’s CAC, +1.0% UK’s FTSE 100, +0.8% Spain’s Ibex, +1.2% Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.9% In other markets as European/London

Recover much of the earlier losses German DAX -0.4%.  The low reached -1.5% France’s CAC -0.2%. The low reached -1.39% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.2%. The low reached -1.19% Spain’s Ibex +0.1%. The low reached -1.22% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.1%. The low reached -1.29% For the week, provisional closes are showing gains for the major indices across the

Down -$1.67 or -4.31% The price of WTI crude oil futures settle at $37.05. That’s down $-1.67 or -4.31%. The low for the day reached $36.63. The high reached $38.65. The low price was just short of the September 9 low of $36.60.  The pair also fell just short of the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the

Swing area on daily between 1.1695 to 1.1710 The EURUSD is higher on the week and in the process is moving above a swing area defined by swing lows going back to the end of July in the 1.1695 to 1.1710 area.  Last week, the price moved below that area but found support buyers near

CFTC commitments of traders: Traders reverse speculative positions in GBP to a modest short. Coming Up! Title text for next article LON +1 SDNY+10 NY -4 TYO +9 GMT Technical Analysis CFTC commitments of traders data for the week ending September 29, 2020 EUR long 188K vs 191K long last week. Longs trimmed by 3K

Major indices still close higher for the week The major US stock indices are closing the day lower as traders digest Pres. Trump’s Covid diagnosis and no new stimulus deal from the Dems and GOP. Although the NASDAQ fell over 2% today, the index still closed higher for the 2nd week in a row. The

Buyers and sellers battling it out The USDJPY moved above a swing area  in the 105.167 to 105.257 area and made its way to the next target resistance at the 200 hour MA (green line). That level also reached a floor area that was defined on Wednesday and Thursday near the same area.   See earlier

Hopes for a stimulus package The US major stock indices closed higher for the 5th day over the last 6 days. The NASDAQ led the way and is closing near the session highs. It is also at the highest level since September 3.   The Dow and S&P also closed higher but are nearer the midpoint of their trading ranges and with