Trade ideas thread – European session 16 March 2021

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Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts

The dollar is keeping steadier after a bit of a mixed day yesterday, with little changes observed across major currencies so far. The pound is a touch weaker as EUR/GBP hugs the 0.8600 level, with cable also tracking just below its key hourly moving averages but holding above some minor support around 1.3850 for the time being.

Elsewhere, Treasuries are also holding steady with 10-year yields down slightly to 1.59%. The bond market and the dollar are largely waiting on the Fed tomorrow, so I wouldn’t expect much general direction in the meantime.

Besides that, equities are keeping the peace as US stocks continue to press higher though there is the risk that sentiment may be upset when the Fed takes the stage tomorrow.

Going back to FX, EUR/USD is trading rather sideways around its key hourly moving averages @ 1.1932-36 while AUD/USD is holding just above its 100-hour moving average @ 0.7748 but not really doing much as traders lack much enthusiasm for now.

Gold is keeping a modest bounce from the Friday lows but nothing really suggestive of a major break in the downtrend just yet. A lot rides on the Fed tomorrow and how yields will react, though ETF holdings are still being trimmed in the meantime.

Besides some position squaring and light positioning bets ahead of the Fed tomorrow, there shouldn’t be much else to really shake up the market today.

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