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100 hour moving average at 0.692964 the NZDUSD
The NZDUSD has extended its move to the upside and in the process has moved above its 100 hour moving average at 0.69296. Staying above that level now will keep the buyers more in control at least in the short term.
Having said that, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September 23 swing high at 0.69473 is a minimum target from a retracement standpoint if the buyers are to start to take more control. Failure to get above that level (with a move back below the 100 hour MA) would be more bearish as it would characterize the correction as a simple plain-vanilla variety. Not being able to extend above the 38.2% retracement of a smaller trend move is just not showing strength.
On the topside, the 50% retracement and the falling 200 hour moving average (green line) are the next targets to get to and through on more upside momentum. The swing low from September 23 is also near that area and would give buyers added ammunition for a bias shift.
Next week, the RBNZ is expected to raise rates by 0.25% to 0.50%. That typically supports a currency. The a move to the downside this week was helped by China concerns and risk off sentiment. Has the bias shifted into that decision?
Watch the technical levels for clues. As we saw this week, there can be other themes in place that control the market bias. The technical helped to weed through the stories through the price action and tools applied to the price action.