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Top line is $1.75 trillion
The framework for a reconciliation deal has evidently been agreed to at the highest levels but I haven’t heard anything yet from Manchin and Sinema so I’m not sure you can assume anything passes until the votes come in.
“I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that the House and Senate majorities and my presidency will be determined by what happens in the next week,” Biden reportedly told a House meeting.
Paid leave was cut just before the finish line, as was aid for vision and prescription drugs. The largest new investment is universal preschool for all 3-and-4-year olds, which is funded for six years. That and subsidies for child card should help to improve the US participation rate but it won’t happen overnight.
I suspect they’ll try to circle back to paid family leave on a bipartisan basis. About 80% of Americans support it, including many Republicans. It could also be a wedge issue for Democrats if Republicans vote it down.
The biggest way it will be paid for is $400B via an ‘IRS investment to close the tax gap’.
There’s a question about whether the House will put the earlier infrastructure package to a vote today.
