EURUSD moves lower as Lagarde holds the line on policy path

The EURUSD continues to move lower as ECBs Lagarde’s press conference continues. She is holding the line as far as policy with APP purchases likely to and sometime in the third quarter, but is not pinpointing whether it’s at the beginning or the end. She has added that she sees medium-term inflation risks starting to come down, and that the Euro areas more exposed to the impact of the Ukraine/Russian war.

Looking at the hourly chart, the EURUSD moved down toward its 100 hour moving average after the rate statement and has continued its move to the downside and away from the 100 hour moving average as the press conference has progressed.

The pair is moving back toward the low from yesterday which reach 1.08082. That was just above the low from early in March at 1.0805. The low in March was the lowest level going back to May 2020. A move below that level would likely give sellers even more ammunition to push to the downside.

FYI, the cycle low for the EURUSD from 2020 reached 1.06347. Going back to 2016, the cycle low then reach 1.0339. Be aware. .