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The GBPUSD waffled up and down in a narrow trading range on Good Friday. That dynamic helped to converged the rising 100 hour moving average with the falling 200 hour moving average (blue and green lines in the chart above). Those two moving averages are straddling the 1.3053 level currently.
The price in the first few hours of trading today, saw the GBPUSD move above and below those moving averages. However the price fell below the levels earlier in the day, and have stayed below since that break.
The North American session high did see a corrective move up toward those moving average levels once again, but could only reach 1.3044. The price has rotated lower over the last three or so hours and currently trades at 1.3023.
Also on the topside, the price high in the North American session entered a swing area between 1.30419 and 1.30502.
Going back to mid -March, there had been a number of moves below that swing area (red shaded area between March 11 and March 16). After reestablishing the level between March 16 and April 8, the price once again traded mostly below the area from April 8 to April 13 (see most recent red shaded areas).
The GBPUSD price is back below that swing area with the move lower today. If sellers are to remain in control, staying below the swing area and the moving averages give the sellers the “strongest hand”.
On more downside momentum, the swing low from mid-March reached just below the 1.3000 level would be targeted. Move below that level – and stay below that level – would have traders looking toward the lows from the last few week at 1.2981 (from March 8) and 1.2971 (from March 13) respectively.
Conversely, a move above the swing area – and the moving averages – will give give buyers some added confidence, and give some sellers cause for pause. That combination should see further upside corrective probing on the inability to push lower.