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Looking at things, it’s quite a straightforward situation for USD/JPY at the moment; all things considered.
The pair has been on a tear amid the surge higher in Treasury yields as well, with a broader dollar rally also exacerbating the upside push from 120.00 to 130.00 in the past two months.
We’re now holding at the key figure level and buyers are keeping poised, though not yet convinced of a further upside leg just yet.
All that now comes down to the Fed and how they lay down the law today, with the bond market reaction also one to watch in particular.
In my view, it’s going to be tough for the Fed to be more hawkish than they already are. But the least that they can do is to maintain the same level of hawkishness that we have observed in the past few weeks, which have led to the rout in the bond market and a broader dollar rally in general.
The key level to watch for Treasuries is the 3% mark in 10-year yields. If we blow past that, that should help to solidify the recent dollar momentum and trigger the next upside leg in USD/JPY.
As we look to consolidate above the 130.00 level, the 135.00 level is the next key figure to watch upon such a breakout.
For now, this is all conjecture. It all comes down to the Fed later today. Tick tock, tick tock.