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The USDCHF has been moving up sharply higher since bottoming on March 31 at 0.9194. The price is up 24 of last 28 trading days. Day 29 today is down after reaching a new cycle high yesterday at 0.99743. The move higher has seen the price move up some 780 pips over that time period.
What about the EURCHF ?
Looking at it on the daily chart above, it has been moving up of late to the upside, but is certainly lagging the USDCHF strength. The move higher in that pair, is a USD thing. Both the EUR and the CHF is losing ground vs the stronger USD, keeping the EURCHF relatively subdued.
Nevertheless, before yesterday, the price for the EURCHF was up 7 consecutive days. The last two trading days have been lower, however.
What helped stall the rally?
Looking at the daily chart above, the price moved up to test the 200 day MA at 1.04973. The high price yesterday reached 1.0514 above that MA level, but could not sustain momentum and closed back below the MA level. In trading today, the price high could only reach 1.04925 before rotating lower.
The broken 38.2% at 1.04218 is now the next downside technical target for the pair.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the correction lower today has seen the pair move down to test the rising 100 hour MA (blue line) at 1.04447. The price has traded above and below that MA over the last 6-7 hours. The last hourly bar is trying to stay below that level. If more room can be established between that MA and the price, the sellers would gain more confidence with a move toward the 38.2% of the move up from the April 29 low at 1.03902 as the next key target.
Conversely, a move back above the 100 hour MA with momentum would tilt the bias back higher.
For now, yes the price action is up and down choppy, but traders are returning back to the 100 hour MA which may be a sign that more downside probing is in orders. However, traders will want to see more momentum below the MA level to help confirm more downside potential.
