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The EURUSD has dipped below the 100 hour MA for the first time (with momentum at least) since May 17. The 100 hour MA is at 1.07242 currently.
The move lower comes after trading to a new cycle high on Monday up to 1.07857. The price started to come down in the Asian session and has continued into the early NY session. A new low is being made at 1.0683. Stay below the 100 hour MA will give short term sellers comfort. A move back above that MA will spoil the fun though for those sellers (and could see a push back higher) will.
On the downside, the next target comes in at the 200 hour MA which is being approached as I type at 1.06767. A move below the 200 hour moving average would open the door for further selling momentum. The price has not traded below the 200 hour moving average since May 19. The high to low trading range is now 96 pips. That is just below the 98 pip 22 day average (about a month of trading). There may be a pause with more selling on a break.
A move below that 200 hour level would target the low price from last Thursday’s trade at 1.06617. The low from Wednesday last week is down at 1.0641.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the move down from the February swing high had the 30.2% retracement of that move come in at 1.07862. As noted, the high price from Monday reached 1.07857 just below that 38.2% retracement level. The inability to get above the 38.2% retracement was certainly a disappointment and helped to contribute to the downside momentum today protect go perspective.
