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The AUDUSD moved higher at the start of the month of May and in the process moved up to retest the 100 and 200 day MAs (blue and green lines on the chart above).
The price rise found risk focused sellers against the lower 100 day MA. The next 6 days saw the price move to a new 2021 and 2022 lows on it way to the low on May 12 at 0.68284. That low took the AUDUSD to the lowest level since June 2020.
The last 13 trading days have seen 9 days up. The high price today reached 0.72032, that came up short of the 100 hour MA at 0.72298. The price has rotated lower as we head to the close for the month. The price is currently trading at 0.71799.
What next?
Staying on the daily chart, the move to the upside was able to extend above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April high to the May low. That level comes in at 0.71463 and will be a close support in the early days of June. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and traders will look to target the 0.7079 to 0.71038 level.
On the topside, the 100 day moving average at 0.72298, the 50% midpoint of the same move down from the April high at 0.72446, and the 200 day moving average (not broken since April 22) comes in at 0.7257. Move above all those levels and it opens the door for further upside momentum in June.
So an up, down and back up month. The price is higher but remains below the key 100/200 day MAs above. The pair did fail on the break of the 2021 and 2022 lows earlier in the month. Is that the end for the fall? The price will have to get back above the 100/200 day MAs to convince the buyers and sellers that the buyers are more in control.