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The USDCAD started the trading day today with a move to the upside. That move saw the price of the pair break above its 100 hour moving average on 2 separate occasions.
Looking at the hourly chart, last Thursday, the price briefly moved above the 100 hour moving average only to rotate back to the downside within the same hourly bar. You would need to go back to May 26th for the last time the price of the USDCAD traded more comfortably above the 100 hour moving average. Those breaks were bullish but the failures led to disappointment from the buyers, and they reversed the price action to the downside.
The move back to the downside has taken the price below the Friday low at 1.25497, but has stayed above the low from yesterday’s trade at 1.25344.
Stay above the low from yesterday significant. Over the last 8 trading days, there have been lower lows on each of the days. Today, that is not the case at least so far.
So although if I were to have a bias preference, the sellers which is still be in control after the failures above the 100 hour moving average. However, it is also important to realize at if the price cannot get below the prior low, there could be some cracks in the bearish bias that leads to a rebound. All bets are off however if we do get back below the 1.25344 level.