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New Zealand inflation data for the April to June quarter is due. Its expected to show a slower upward pace than was recorded q/q in Q1 although y/y is still seen as rising. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set on a rate hike path. It would take a reading well below consensus to shift the RBNZ from their path.
Driving NZ inflation are familiar themes:
- food prices, rents, construction costs, soaring fuel prices
Further ahead – tradables (mainly imported goods and services) inflation is expected to fall back a little in coming months. Non-tradables appear likely to stay elevated, the very tight labour market is a key driver of domestic NZ inflation pressure.
As for the NZD, while this data may provided some small movement the currency is being driven more by offshore factors at present. In a nutshell, US recession fears (or not) and FOMC speculation (+75bps appears to be the next very likely hike although +100bp is not quite out of the running just yet).
Also on the data agenda today (not shown below) is data from Singapore at 0030 GMT – Non-oil exports for June:
- expected +2.3%, prior +3.2% for the m/m
- expected +6.7% and prior +12.4% y/y
This
snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access
it here.
The
times in the left-most column are GMT.
The
numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month)
result. The number in the column next to that, where is a number, is
the consensus median expected.