Dollar moves lower after flash PMI index. 30 year yield below 3% for first since May 30

Technical Analysis

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The flash PMI services data comes out weaker than expected and below the 50% level (to 47.0) suggesting a contraction of activity as a result of the shock from higher prices (even in services). That has pushed the  US dollar  lower against all the major currency pairs:

  • EURUSD has move back above its 100 hour moving average at 1.0196 and trades up to 1.02189. The next key target comes in at swing area between 1.02198 up to 1.02344. Move above that level and traders would start to look toward the 50% midpoint of the move down from the June 27 high at 1.02829
  • GBPUSD: THe GBPUSD is also moved higher and trades back above the 1.2000 level. The current prices trading at 1 point to 024 at new session highs for the day, and is approaching swing highs between 1.20326 and 1.20456 seen this week. The upper extreme is also the 50% midpoint of the move down from the June 27 high. Key level on the topside.
  • USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved below key support at 136.367 and 136.465. An upward sloping trendline on the hourly chart cuts across at 135.91 (see chart below). Move below that level would increase the bearish bias.
USDJPY approaches trend line support
  • USDCHF: The USDCHF is down testing the 100 day MA at 0.95999. The price has bounced off that key technical level on the first look
USDCHF tests 100 day MA
  • USDCAD: The USDCAD is testing the swing low from June 28 at 1.28185 and is finding some risk focused bias against the level (traders leaning). The price is trading at 1.2839 on the rebound. Watch this area for sellers as it represents a swing area off the extreme.
USDCAD tests the low from June 28 and bounces
USDCAD tests the low from June 28 and bounces
USDCAD tests the low from June 28 and bounces

The US yields remain under pressure:

  • 2 year 2.951%, -13.8 bps
  • 5 year 2.853%, -13.3 bps
  • 10 year 3.763%, -11.5 bps Was up at 3.028% yesterday
  • 30 year 2.965%, -8.1 bps. Back below 3.0% for the first time since May 31

Stocks are now coming under pressure as concerns about growth outweigh the likely move lower in inflation (at least for now):

  • Dow industrial average is unchanged
  • S&P index -11 points or -0.27% at 3988
  • NASDAQ index -91 point -0.76% at 11968
  • Russell 2000-13.39 points or -0.73% at 1823.29

/ inflation under pressure 

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