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European benchmark TTF natural gas markets are closed for the week after a dramatic fall but you can bet that if they were open now, prices would be much higher.
The relief in gas prices helped to buffer the euro this week and came after Germany filled its storage quicker.than anticipated.
However even if it can get to 100%, that’s 23 billion cubic meters compared to annual usage around 95 bcm.There are non-Russian pipelines that are still adding supply but Nord Stream 1 at 20% left them just enough gas to get through the winter if the weather is good. Without any flows from Nord Stream 1, it will take heavy rationing to make it through the winter.
That’s undoubtedly bad news for the euro.
What’s difficult is guaging whether this is really maintenance from Russia or a pretext to shut it down. Given everything that’s happened in the past, you have to assume it’s a pretext. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this happened immediately after the G7 agreed on a Russian oil price cap.