US yields move higher and kicks up the USD

The US 10 year yield has moved up to a session high of 3.811%. Just 2 days ago the yield was down at 3.564%.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price has moved above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the September 28 high at 3.792%. The yield stay below that level yesterday and earlier today but has now succumbed to the upside. The yield is also above its 200 hour moving average at 3.767%.

There is a lot of Fed speak today:

• Fed’s Kashkari said that he is not comfortable with pausing yet
• Fed’s Bostic said inflation fight is still in early days. Bostic did say that he would like to see the price move to 4 to 4.5% by the end of the year and then pause.

The current market has price in4.28% by the end of the year and then looks for a peak at 4.53% in April 2023.

The move higher rates has also started to worry the US stock market which moved into positive territory for a bit, but has now quickly reversed lower.

• The Dow industrial average is now down -193 points or -0.64%.
• The S&P index is down -23 points at -0.62%.
• The NASDAQ index is down -49 points at -0.45%

In the forex:

• The EURUSD is trading to a new session low of 0.98176. That has taken the price back below the 30.2% retracement of the move up from September 28 low at 0.98213. There is a swing area around the 0.9810 area. Below that and traders will target the 200 hour moving average at 0.9769 and the 50% of the move up from September 28 at 0.97667
• The GBPUSD is trading to a new low of 1.1215. That has taken out the low from yesterday at 1.12258. In the London morning session the price fell back below its 100 hour moving average 1.1300
• USDJPY is moving to a new session high of 144.86 and in the process is getting closer to the 145.00 ceiling area
• The USDCAD is trading to its new intraday high at 1.37245. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price has moved above a topside trend line connecting recent highs.

• The NZDUSD has move back below its 200 hour moving average at 0.56899. The 100 hour moving averages at 0.57037. Those levels are now topside risk levels. Stay below is more bearish.