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New low today, but choppy up and down trading
The USDCAD made a new low going back to October 2018 today. The pair took out the low from Monday at 1.29226. The low price – reached in the early European session – reached 1.29156. However, momentum slowed and sellers on the break, were forced to cover. The high reached 1.29578 before moving back down.
The pair has scraped near the low (getting down to around 1.29226) but has not been able to push to new session lows. The pair trades at 1.29337.
Overall the range for the day is only 41-42 pips. The average over the last 22 trading days is 82 pips. So high low volatility is about 1/2 of what is normal (at least over the last month). With the price trading near the lows, it suggests that there is a bit of a reluctance to go lower, but sellers are still not giving up on the downside trend bias. The pair since November 13 (14 trading days) has moved from 1.31719 to 1.29156 or 256 pips.
If the buyers are to take more control, getting and staying above 1.2922 to 1.29274 would be preferred. The low for the day reached 1.29156, but finding support just above that low is indicative of more anxious buyers.
From there, getting above the 1.29578 high for the day (also was a swing low from Monday afternoon) and then the falling 100 hour MA and topside downward sloping trend line at 1.29722 would be another more bullish signal.