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Break above 200 hour MA fails today
The USDJPY raced higher in the London/European session on flight to safety (although it is hard to see much safety anywhere). The push took the price of the USDJPY above a swing area between 103.546 and 103.713 and then the 200 hour MA at 103.758. The high price reached 103.885 and then backed off.
The move back to the downside has moved back below the 200 hour MA and the swing area The low reached 103.446. That was ahead of the 100 hour MA at the time at 103.416 (now at 103.409). The current price is trading at 103.52.
Going forward, the 100 hour MA will remain a downside barometer. Stay above and dip buyers are still in play. Move below and we should see a further downside probing with 103.256 as the next target.
On the topside, the swing area (yellow area) followed by the 200 hour MA at 103.758, become upside targets.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the 103.066 to 103.175 were swing lows going back to March 2020 and November 2020. Those lows were broken last week on Thursday and Friday, but momentum could not be sustained. A move back below that area – and stay below – would be more bearish.
On the topside, it would take a move above 103.995 to 104.180 to swing the give buyers more upside confidence from the daily chart perspective
