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Absolute mess of Russia headlines with a translation error
- Sees oil inventories falling to 5-year average in 2021
- Sees demand at pre-crisis level in 2022
- Oil deficit is around 1-2 mbpd
- Sees risk non-OPEC+ raises output amid higher oil prices
This was a total mess.
Initial headlines said Russia was raising oil production by 890K bpd in May. That would use up all their spare capacity and essentially be Russia bailing on OPEC+.
The current OPEC+ decision is for Russia to increase production by 130K bpd in April but there’s been nothing about May it sounded like they had pre-announced a further increase here.
However, it was a translation error at a newswire.
Novak actually said production would be 890K bpd in May but that’s from April 2020 — a year earlier when production was heavily curtailed. The initial headlines said it would be from April 2021, which is a huge m/m increase. Essentially, he’s not saying anything new here and now oil has stormed right back.
At least we know what would happen in the oil market if Russia bailed on OPEC+.
