Trudeau crashes in pre-election polls. New government increasingly likely

Trudeau’s decision to call an election looks like a disaster

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called an election two-years early hoping to ride Canada’s early vaccination success along with a solid overall handing of the pandemic and NAFTA to a majority government.

That decision looks to have backfired in a big way.

Polls showed he would win a comfortable majority immediate before calling the Sept 20 election but the public has recoiled against high housing prices, social policy, griding woke-ism and an unnecessary election.

Because of vote concentration in Canada’s first-past-the-post system, Trudeau’s Liberals could still win the most seats despite losing the popular vote but the odds are slipping. The best he could hope for now would be a return to what he had before.

Instead, it looks like Erin O’Toole may be Prime Minister in three weeks.

What does it mean for CAD?

Politics are stable in Canada but there was some fear of wholesale tax changes under a Trudeau majority. With a minority government — either Liberal or Conservative — the status quo is likely to remain. However, decreases in government spending are more likely under the Conservatives and that could hit economic growth.

However any drag there could be offset by a better investment climate, particularly in the struggling oil and gas industry.

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