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The price of
crude oil fell to the lowest level since February 3, breaking below the low price from yesterday at $88.49, and an earlier low today at $88.60. That move fell below a swing area between $88.52 and $88.84 (see green numbered circles). However, the break could only get to $88.44 before bouncing back to the upside.
The subsequent run higher as seen the price peak today at $90.55. That was just above its 100 hour moving average at $90.53. Recall from yesterday, the price correction after the sharp decline toward the 200 hour moving average(green line), also found sellers near the 100 hour moving average.
The sellers against the moving average is keeping a lid on the pair. Traders can define the risk and limited risk against the level. It would take a move above the level to increase the bullish bias. Absent that, and the sellers are still in play, although they still have much to prove.
However, if the price can get back below the 200 hour moving average and below the aforementioned swing area down to $88.52, that bias would start to shift more in favor of the sellers.
Fundamentals stories in play include:
- Russia/Ukraine. The heat has turned down over the last few days after Macron/Putin visit
- Iran nuclear deal talks
If there can be a deal with Russia or with Iran, that would help to ease the risk concerns and potentially lead to more supply. A breakdown will have the opposite impact
The Biden administration believes it has until the end of February to salvage a deal with Iran. Otherwise the US will have not only have keep economic sanctions in place, but may also look to increase the pressure on Tehran which is destabilizing.
Meanwhile, the weekly inventory data showed a larger than expected drawdown in inventories which is also bullish (-4756K vs +369K estimate)