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- US ready to respond decisively should Russia invade Ukraine
- We are now in the window where a Russian invasion could begin any time
- Any American in Ukraine should leave within the next 24-48 hours
- “I do want to be clear: It could begin during the Olympics, despite a lot of speculation that it would only happen after the Olympics.”
- We are not saying Putin has made a final decision
- Believes there is a distinct possibility that Putin has given the order to invade but doesn’t know his decision has been made
- US ready to respond to invasion with sanctions and NATO posture changes
- False flag operations is also possible
- Could also see rapid assault on Kyiv
- Expects Biden to engage with Putin by phone
- More than 100K Russian troops on the border
Beyond the invasion itself, the big question for markets is whether there will be coordinated sanctions on Russian oil and gas or lock Russia out of the SWIFT system. I suspect the EU won’t go that far, at least not initially.
The rise in oil is going to mean more
inflation but it has come back a bit on the comment that the US says Putin hasn’t made a final decision.
This article was originally published by Forexlive.com. Read the original article here.