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The USDCAD has reversed some of the declines seen yesterday and into today.
Recall from yesterday, the Bank of Canada raised rates by 50 basis points and that coupled with hopes that the US inflation was peaking, sent the USD lower and the CAD higher.
The run to the downside saw the pair fall below its 200 day moving average at 1.2622, it’s 100 hour moving average currently at 1.26056, but found support buyers near its 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above).
Today, the price was able to crack below the 200 hour moving average and rotate for the next target at the 50% midpoint at 1.25387 of the move up from the April 5 low.
That midpoint was broken with the price then scooting down to a low for the day at 1.25203, but the last five hourly bars has seen a rotation back to the upside. Breaking back above the 50% retracement and the 200 hour moving average (green line at 1.25628), propel the price up to the 100 hour moving average (blue line at 1.26056). After stalling against that level and rotating back to the downside, the USDCAD based and has moved above the 100 hour moving average back toward the 200 day moving average over the last hour or so of trading.
Looking at the hourly chart, the current hourly bar is trading between the 100 hour moving average below and the 200 day moving average above. How that battle is resolved will likely lead to the next momentum move.
Helping to reverse the fortunes of this currency pair is certainly the rise in US rates today. The US two year yield is back up to 2.466% that’s up 11.2 basis points. The 10 year yield is now trading at 2.803%. That’s up nearly 10 basis points on the day and getting closer to the cycle high at 2.836%. The low yield today reached down to 2.648% before rotating back to the upside.