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The dot plot for June 2022 shows the median rate at the end of 2022 at 3.4%, up from 1.9% in March 2022. With the current rate at 1.7%, that implies an additional 170 bps.
For 2023, the median Fed funds target rate is up to 3.8%, up from 2.8% in March 2022 or an increase of 40 basis point from the end of 2022.
In 2024, the Fed projects a Fed funds target rate of 3.4%, down 40 basis points from the end of year 2023.
Below is the current dot plot from June 2022:
The Dot plot from March 2022, looked like this:
The table of central tendencies from June 2022 now shows:
A summary of the central tendencies compared to March shows for 2022:
- GDP 1.7% from 2.8% in March. That is down 1.1% from March
- Unemployment 3.7% from 3.5% in March. That is up 0.2% from 3.5% March
- PCE inflation 5.2% from 4.3% in March. That is an increase of 0.9% from March
- Core PCE inflation 4.3% from 4.1% in March. That is an increase of 0.2% from March
In 2023, the FOMC now sees:
- GDP 1.7% vs. 2.2% in March, down 0.5%
- unemployment 3.9% vs. 3.5% March, up 0.4%
- PCE inflation 2.6% vs. 2.7% in March, down -0.1%
- Core PCE inflation at 2.7% from 2.6% March, up 0.1%
Inflation