NZDUSD falls back below 100 hour MA and stay below the MA level

The NZDUSD moved above the 100 day MA last Thursday (upper blue line currently at 0.64297).

The price traded above and below that key moving average on Thursday, Friday and again today. The difference today is once the price fell below the 100 day moving average, it stayed below the 100 day moving average.

The run to the downside today also fell below the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 0.63924) the low price stalled at 0.63549. That was just above the swing high going back to August 1 at 0.63519. Traders leaned against that old high price as risk can be defined and limited, and the price rotated back to the upside.

That rotation stalled against its rising 100 hour moving average setting the stage for the current battle between the old high from August 1 at 0.63519, and the rising 100 hour moving average at 0.63924. The current price trades at 0.6363. The bias is tilted little more to the downside given the breaks lower today.

On a break below 0.63519, traders will look toward the rising 100 hour moving average at 0.63343 (green line in the chart above). The 50% of the move up from the August 5 low comes in at 0.63398 – 5 pips above that level.

Alternatively a move back above the 100 hour moving average would muddy the bearish waters on the sharp break to the downside today. A move back higher toward the swing low from Friday and from late Thursday at 0.64209 and the falling 100 day moving average at 0.64297 would be the next key upside targets to get to and through if the buyers are to take more control again on a move above the 100 hour moving average.

Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the move above the 100 day moving average last week also extended above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April high to the lows seen in July. The inability to stay above that 38.2% retracement and 100 day moving average also helped to give the sellers more confidence on the break lower today.

The buyers had their shot, and they missed.

Fundamentally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce their interest rate decision on Wednesday morning in New Zealand (Tuesday night at 10 PM ET). The expectations is for rise of 50 basis points to 3% from 2.5%.