Most Japanese firms expect USD/JPY under 141 by the end of 2022

Reuters monthly poll of Japanese firms taken August 31 – September 9:

• three quarters of Japan firms concerned about Taiwan crisis; slim majority have no plan to respond
• 58% of Japan firms see Taiwan crisis to affect their business relations with china
• only 13% of Japanese firms expect yen at 141 or more vs dollar by year-end
• majority cannot see inbound tourism recover; 20% see no return of demand to pre-pandemic levels

Further on the yen:

• Asked how they expected the yen to move against the dollar by year-end, 45% of firms – the biggest chunk – pegged it at 136-140,
• followed by 28% at 131-135
• Some 11% put it at 126-130
• 3% set it at 120-125
• Only 13% saw it weakening further from 141, meaning many firms could be put on the back foot if the currency were to weaken again. Separately, a slim majority of respondents want the yen to rise moderately while 28% want it to fall modestly.

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Larger Japanese firms, collectively Japan Inc. do have the ear of the government – they’ll be making their views on the appropriate JPY level well known.