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Ahead of the release of the latest consumer price index reading this week, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian told CBS’ “Face The Nation” Sunday that he predicts headline inflation “will probably come down to about 8%,” but that core inflation “is still going up.”
Core inflation is what measures the drivers of inflation and how broad they are, so El-Erian said an increase in core inflation means “we still have an inflation issue.”
Even if core inflation is still on the rise, however, El-Erian said it will eventually come down.
“The question is, does it come down with a slowdown in the economy or a major recession?” he said on “Face the Nation.”
The oil producer group OPEC+ announced its largest supply cut since 2020 on Wednesday, and El-Erian said this decision “does hurt the U.S.,” as it risks causing inflation to increase again. But he said the cut did not come as a surprise since the group is looking to protect oil prices in the face of declining demand.
“That’s what they do,” he said. “But it’s certainly not good news for the U.S. economy.”