New Zealand traffic data points to some upside risk to Q3 GDP – demand resilient

The ANZ Truckometer is a set of two economic indicators derived using traffic volume data from around New Zealand.
ANZ use traffic flows in this indicator as a proxy for economic growth.

From the current report:

• The Light Traffic Index +1.9% in September
• Heavy Traffic Index -3.3%
• for the Heavy Traffic Index lifted 1.6% over the quarter

ANZ comments:

• Demand has so far proven relatively resilient to uncertainty, rising interest rates and falling house prices. While retail activity is definitely down, it hasn’t fallen off a cliff. The RBNZ noted last week when raising the OCR another 50bp that they would have expected a more marked slowdown in demand by now.
• The Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) tends to provide a better steer on production GDP. Up 1.6% q/q in Q3, this suggests the economy continued to expand at a solid pace, pointing to some upside risk to our Q3 GDP forecast of 0.4% q/q.