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The USDCAD moved to a another month low (and traded to the lowest level since June 13) in the late Asian session.
Looking at the hourly chart, the low price reached 1.27874. That low also grace the downward sloping trendline on the hourly chart connecting last Friday’s low with yesterday’s low. The price low also got within 12 pips of the 100 day moving average at 1.27753.
The subsequent move to the upside, was able to extend back above the 100 hour moving average. Getting above the 100 hour moving average has not been something unusual of late. The price moved above it on all trading days going back to last Friday with each of the breaks failing.
What has been a tougher hurdle on corrective moves higher has been the 200 hour moving average (green line) currently at 1.28657. On Wednesday near the Fed decision, the price moved above that moving average level only to fall back to the downside on the same hourly bar. The 200 hour moving average has not seen a closing level above it since July 15.
Like the other breaks of the 100 hour MA, today’s break is also failing. The subsequent price moved to the downside has taken the price back toward a key swing level between 1.2815 and 1.28214. Move below that area would take the price back below the low price going back to June 28 and other swing lows from earlier this week. It would also push the price into the lower extremes for the week and rekindle the idea for a retest of the 100 day moving average