US: Unemployment rate to resume downtrend after April’s surprising rise – TDS

Previewing next week key data releases from the US, “payrolls probably rose strongly by pre-covid standards but we see some downside risk versus the consensus again this month,” said TD Securities anaysts. 

Key quotes

“Our forecast implies a still-sizeable 7.7mn net decline from the pre-COVID level. The unemployment rate probably resumed its downtrend after a surprising rise in April.”

“Both ISM indexes probably rose in May after dipping in April. Our forecast for the manufacturing index is below March’s 64.7, a 37-year high, but we expect the services index to reattain the all-time high of 63.7 reached in March. (Data start in 1997.) We expect the indexes to edge down in the months ahead as the boosts from fiscal stimulus and reopening fade.”